How to read a turbulence forecast
In aviation, turbulence is forecast every day. Knowing how to read those forecasts lets you see what to expect before you board.
Where do the forecasts come from?
The world's weather centres publish daily turbulence forecasts for aviation at different altitudes. The global forecasts from NOAA's Aviation Weather Center in the US, for example, are public. Real-time reports from aircraft are added on top. Pilots look at information from the same sources before takeoff.
What do the levels mean?
- Calm: no noticeable movement.
- Light: small jiggles; the water in your glass ripples. This is the most common condition in the sky.
- Moderate: more noticeable bumps; walking gets harder, service usually pauses and the seatbelt sign comes on. Crews are trained for this.
A forecast is a likelihood, not a certainty. In the same area one aircraft may feel nothing while another feels light bumps, and pilots may adjust altitude based on the forecast.
Reading it along your route
A map on its own says “there's turbulence in this area”, but not when or at what altitude your aircraft will pass through it. What actually helps is putting the forecast on your route and your time.
Step by step with SafeSkies
- Enter your flight number (e.g. TK1981) or the departure and arrival city.
- In the Turbulence tab you'll see a minute-by-minute chart along your route.
- Slide your finger along the chart to see where the aircraft will be on the map at that minute.
- The pre-flight briefing goes through the flight part by part: over which regions it may get a little bumpy, and where the air is calm.
So you board knowing something concrete, like “about 10 minutes of light bumps over central Anatolia, 40 minutes after takeoff”. Bumps that aren't a surprise are much easier to sit through.
